jueves, 22 de octubre de 2020

Large Shares of Voters Plan To Vote a Straight Party Ticket for President, Senate and House



Some races do not include candidates of both major parties (for example, a few districts in California have two Democratic and no Republican candidates). Excluding these handful of races where there are not two major party candidates running does not meaningfully impact the conclusions of this report, but they have been included in the analyses presented here.

Everyone who took part in this survey is a member of Pew Research Center’s American Trends Panel (ATP), an online survey panel that is recruited through national, random sampling of residential addressees. This way nearly all U.S. adults have a chance of selection. The survey is weighted to be representative of the U.S. adult population by gender, race, ethnicity, partisan affiliation, education and other categories. Read more about the ATP’s methodology.

In an era of increasing partisanship, split-ticket voting continues to be rare in U.S. politics. With control of the Senate at stake on Nov. 3, just 4% of registered voters in states with a Senate contest say they will support Donald Trump or Joe Biden and a Senate candidate from the opposing party.

In voting for both the House and Senate, partisanship prevails. About eight-in-ten of voters (78%) say they will vote (or already have voted) for either Biden and the Democratic House of Representatives candidate (43% of all voters) or Trump and the Republican candidate (35% of all voters) in their congressional district.

Only 4% of registered voters say they plan to vote for Biden and the Republican candidate for House in their district or Donald Trump and the Democratic House candidate. This is little changed from four years ago. It is more common for voters to say they plan to vote for a third-party candidate for president (or less commonly, for the House) and a major-party candidate for the other race. Still, only 6% of voters say they plan to cast their ballots this way.

Similarly, among those living in states with Senate races, the largest share of voters say they plan to vote for both Biden and the Democratic Senate candidate (42%) or Trump and the Republican Senate candidate (38%) in their state. A recent analysis of U.S. Senate elections since 2012 shows how rare it is for a Senate race to go a different way from a state’s votes in presidential elections. In 139 regular and special elections for the Senate since 2012, 88% have been won by candidates from the same party that won that state’s most recent presidential contest.

This analysis of split-ticket voting is based on Pew Research Center’s recent national survey, conducted Sept. 30 to Oct. 5 among 11,929 U.S. adults, including 10,543 registered voters in which Biden garners support from 52% of registered voters and Trump is supported by 42%. The survey used information about respondents’ locations to present survey-takers with the names of the candidates running in each congressional race.
Modest demographic differences in split-ticket voting

Majorities of every major demographic group in the electorate are voting for the same party’s candidate in the presidential election and the congressional election in their district. The share of voters in any major demographic group that casts a ballot for both a Republican and a Democratic candidate in these elections is usually less than 5% across major demographic groups.

Straight-ticket voting mirrors presidential voting patterns. Men are more likely than women to vote for Republican candidates in both the House and presidential elections, while women are more likely to support Democratic candidates in both.

White voters are substantially more likely than voters of other racial and ethnic backgrounds to vote for Republican candidates in both the congressional and presidential elections.

The share of voters casting a straight-ticket Republican ballot in these elections increases steadily with age. Only 22% of Gen Z voters are voting this way, compared with nearly half (47%) of Silent Generation voters.

Gen Z and Millennial voters are also more likely than voters in older generations to support third- or fourth-party candidates for president; 13% of Gen Z voters favor non-major party candidates for either House or president, as do 9% of Millennial voters. Thus, larger shares of voters in these generations split their votes for president and the House. But just 3% of Gen Z voters and 4% of Millennials favor Biden and a Republican House candidate or Trump and a Democrat. That is comparable to the shares of older voters who divide preferences on a partisan basis in voting for president and the House.

Voters with a bachelor’s degree or more education are much more likely to vote a straight Democratic ticket in these races than are those with less education. There is no relationship between education and Republican-Democratic split-ticket voting; equal shares of voters (4%) across different levels of educational attainment vote this way.

Lower-engagement voters – those who say they have given less than “a lot” of thought to the presidential race – are more likely than others to split their tickets between the Republican and Democratic candidates in the presidential and congressional elections in their districts, though it is still very uncommon (6% of lower-engagement voters vs. 3% of those who are paying a lot of attention to the race).

These lower-engagement voters are much more likely to support minor-party candidates in either the presidential race or the congressional race in their district (14% of those who are paying less than “some” attention to the race vs. 5% of those who are paying “a lot” of attention).

Among all registered voters, Democrats hold an edge in congressional elections, with 46% of voters saying they will vote (or have already voted) for the Democratic candidate in their district and 40% saying they support the Republican candidate. About one-in-ten voters (11%) are not sure whom they will support.

Trump voters and Biden voters overwhelmingly say they support the same party’s candidate for the congressional race in their district (83% of each say they will support a candidate of the same party). Voters who support minor-party candidates for president are about evenly divided in their vote for the House of Representatives (29% support the Democrat and 31% support the Republican).

Trump supporters and Biden supporters living in districts with an opposite-party incumbent are slightly more likely to split their tickets than those living in districts with a same-party incumbent or an open-seat contest. Trump supporters in districts with Democratic incumbents and Biden supporters in districts with Republican incumbents are also more likely than those with same-party incumbents to say they are undecided in the congressional race.

Overall in states where there is a Senate contest, support for Senate candidates is roughly evenly divided. The share of voters supporting the Democratic candidate (45%) in their state is similar to the share supporting the Republican candidate (43%), and 8% of voters say they aren’t sure at this point whom they will support.

Similar to the elections for the House of Representatives, overwhelming shares of voters who are supporting Trump (88%) and Biden (84%) say they are also supporting the same-party candidate for Senate, while those who are supporting a minor-party candidate are more divided (27% support the Democratic candidate in their state and 35% support the Republican candidate).

Unlike in the House elections, there is less evidence that incumbency has any effect on split-ticket voting in these higher-profile Senate races.

domingo, 18 de octubre de 2020

Latino voters have growing confidence in Biden on key issues, while confidence in Trump remains low



As Election Day nears, Hispanic registered voters in the United States express growing confidence in Joe Biden’s ability to handle key issues like the coronavirus outbreak, with women and college graduates especially confident. By contrast, Hispanics’ views of Donald Trump on major issues are largely negative and mostly unchanged from June. These views of the 2020 presidential candidates come as most Hispanic voters continue to hold bleak views of the nation and its economy after months of widespread job losses and illness due to COVID-19, according to a Pew Research Center survey conducted Sept. 30-Oct. 5.

About two-thirds of Latino registered voters say they are somewhat or very confident in Biden to tackle five issues asked about in October, with confidence in Biden higher on every issue since June. The share with confidence in Biden to handle the public health impact of the coronavirus outbreak is up 8 percentage points, 71% in October vs. 62% in June. The largest increase – 15 points – came on confidence in Biden’s ability to bring the country closer together, a margin of 70% vs. 55%. Meanwhile, 66% have confidence in Biden to make good decisions about economic policy, up from 58% who said so in June. In an earlier survey this summer, Latino voters said the economy, health care and the coronavirus outbreak were three of the most important issues to their vote for president.

U.S. registered voters overall also express growing confidence on Biden on these issues, though the increases were more modest and confidence was lower than among Latino voters. For example, 57% of U.S. voters say they have confidence in Biden to handle the public health impact of the coronavirus outbreak, up from 52% in June.

How we did this

Pew Research Center conducted this study to understand how Americans view the upcoming 2020 presidential election and the presidential candidates. For this analysis, we surveyed 11,929 U.S. adults, including 1,347 Hispanic registered voters, during the last week of September and the first week of October 2020. The survey was in the field when Trump announced, early on the morning of Oct. 2, that he and first lady Melania Trump had contracted COVID-19.

Estimates of Hispanic eligible voters in battleground states are based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2018 American Community Survey provided through Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS) from the University of Minnesota.

Everyone who took part in this survey is a member of Pew Research Center’s American Trends Panel (ATP), an online survey panel that is recruited through national, random sampling of residential addresses. This way nearly all U.S. adults have a chance of selection. The survey is weighted to be representative of the U.S. adult population by gender, race, ethnicity, partisan affiliation, education and other categories. Read more about the ATP’s methodology.

Here are the questions used for this report, along with responses, and its methodology.

Latino voters have significantly less confidence in Trump on these issues. Fewer than half say they are somewhat or very confident that he can handle the five issues, with views on most largely unchanged since summer. Only about three-in-ten Latino voters (29%) say they are confident that Trump can handle the health impact of the coronavirus outbreak. A higher share (44%) are confident that Trump can make good decisions about economic policy. Notably, a declining share of Latino voters say they have confidence that the president can bring the country closer together – 20% in October, down from 28% in June.

Among all U.S. voters, confidence in Trump on these issues is also mostly unchanged, though Americans overall have more confidence in the president than Latino voters. Four-in-ten U.S. registered voters (40%) say they have confidence in Trump to handle the health impact of COVID-19, and 30% have confidence that Trump can bring the country closer together. These shares are little changed from June.

A record 32 million Hispanics are projected to be eligible to vote in 2020, a total that for the first time exceeds the number of Black eligible voters in a presidential election. Hispanic voter turnout has historically lagged that of other groups, though turnout spiked among Hispanics and other groups for the 2018 midterms and approached levels normally seen during presidential election years. Even so, Hispanics made up only 8% of all voters in 2018, compared with 10% in 2016. (Explore our interactive maps and tables to see Latino eligible voters by state and congressional district.)
Biden leads among Hispanic voters

Biden holds a 34-point advantage over Trump among Latino eligible voters, far larger than Biden’s 10-point lead among all U.S. voters. In the new survey, 63% of Latino voters say they would vote for Biden or lean toward voting for him if the election were held today, while 29% say they would vote for Trump or lean toward voting for him. In 2016, Latino voters had similar preferences, according to exit polls and a Pew Research Center study of validated voters.

Among Hispanic voters, a higher share of college graduates than those with some college experience or less say they favor Biden, 69% vs. 61%. Meanwhile, 67% of Hispanic women voters and 59% of registered Hispanic men say they prefer Biden.

More Latino voters who support Biden say their choice is more of a vote against Trump than it is a vote for Biden, 59% vs. 40%.

At the same time, Hispanic voters who back Biden are sure about their choice, with 86% saying they are certain they will vote for him – similar to the share among all U.S. voters who support Biden. However, only 57% of Hispanic voters who prefer Biden say they are extremely motivated to vote, a lower share than among the 72% of Biden supporters nationwide.
Hispanic voters in battleground states

Biden holds a narrower lead over Trump (54% vs. 37%) among Latino registered voters in nine “battleground” states – Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Stronger Hispanic support for Trump in battleground states reflects the group’s large population in Florida, where Cuban Americans have helped shape a Hispanic electorate that leans more Republican than Hispanic voters nationwide.

The nine battleground states together have more than 6.3 million Hispanic eligible voters – defined as adult U.S. citizens – and Florida alone (3.1 million) accounts for half of the total. The next largest state is Arizona, with nearly 1.2 million Hispanic eligible voters. In both states, Hispanics make up a fifth or more of all eligible voters – 20% in Florida and 24% in Arizona.

The remaining battleground states, with a combined 2 million Hispanic eligible voters, have smaller but still notable Hispanic electorates. For example, Pennsylvania (521,000), Michigan (261,000) and Wisconsin (183,000) each have sizable numbers of Hispanic eligible voters that can play a role in swinging close elections. In 2016, the presidential contests in these states were decided by a combined total of 77,744 votes.
Impact of COVID-19 on Hispanics

The coronavirus has disproportionately harmed the personal finances of Hispanics, with Hispanic women experiencing the largest job losses of any racial or ethnic group, regardless of gender. About half of Hispanics (53%) say they or someone in their household has been laid off or taken a pay cut because of COVID-19, compared with 42% of all U.S. adults. Since the outbreak started in February, significant shares of Hispanics say they have used money from savings or retirement funds to pay bills (43%), had trouble paying bills (37%), gotten food from a food bank (30%) or had problems paying their rent or mortgage (26%).

Latinos have also experienced disproportionate health impacts from COVID-19. As of mid-August, about one-in-five Latino adults (22%) said they have had a positive coronavirus test (7%) or were “pretty sure” they have had it (15%). By contrast, 14% of all U.S. adults said they have had a positive test (3%) or were pretty sure they have had the virus (11%).

In the new survey, the Hispanic voter groups most confident that Biden can handle the public health impact of the coronavirus outbreak include women (80%) and college graduates (79%). By contrast, lower shares of Hispanic male voters (61%) and Hispanic voters with some college education or less (68%) say they are somewhat or very confident in Biden.

Hispanic voters have far less confidence in Trump’s ability to handle COVID-19, though there are some differences by education. Especially low shares of Hispanic voters who are college graduates (22%) say they have confidence in Trump to handle the public health impact of the coronavirus outbreak, compared with 31% of those with some college education or less. Meanwhile, 26% of Hispanic women voters and 33% of Hispanic male voters have confidence in Trump to handle the outbreak.
Few Latinos view the economy as good, although there is optimism for the future

Roughly three-in-ten Latino registered voters (29%) rate economic conditions in the country as excellent or good, up from 20% in June, but lower than the 35% of all U.S. voters who say so. For Latino voters, the share remains far below the 49% who gave a positive rating to U.S. economic conditions in January, about two months before President Trump declared a national emergency on March 13 due to COVID-19.

Hispanic male voters have a more positive view of the nation’s economy than Hispanic women voters, 34% vs. 23%. Differences also exist by education among Hispanic voters, with 31% of those with some college education or less rating the economy as excellent or good, compared with 22% of college graduates.

Among Biden supporters, only 14% of Latino voters rate the U.S. economy as excellent or good.

Hispanics have some optimism about the future of the economy. About half of Hispanic voters (53%) say they expect economic conditions will be better a year from now, while 30% say conditions will be about the same and 16% say they will worsen.

Older Hispanics have more optimism on this measure than younger Hispanics. About six-in-ten (60%) Hispanic voters ages 50 and older say U.S. economic conditions will be better a year from now, compared with about half (48%) of Hispanic voters ages 18 to 49. Somewhat similar shares of men (57%) and women (49%) among Hispanic voters say economic conditions will have improved in a year. There was no difference by education levels among Hispanic voters, with about half of college graduates and those with some college experience or less saying the economic conditions will be better in a year.
Most Latino voters say they are ‘fearful’ about the state of the nation

Roughly two-thirds of Latino registered voters (68%) say they are fearful about the state of the nation. Meanwhile, 45% of Latino voters say they are hopeful. These views are similar to those reported in June, and similar to those among U.S. voters overall. Latino voters across demographic groups express similar levels of fear when thinking about the state of the country. By contrast, levels of hope for the country among Latino voters vary by gender and education levels.

About half of Hispanic men registered to vote (51%) say they feel hopeful about the state of the country, compared with only 36% of Hispanic women voters. Meanwhile, 37% of Hispanic voters with a bachelor’s degree or more say the feel hopeful, while 47% of Hispanic voters with some college experience or less say the same.

Among Biden supporters, 79% of Latino voters say they feel fearful about the state of the country. Meanwhile, 36% say they feel hopeful.

Latinos voters also had negative views about the nation’s direction. Only one-in-five (21%) say they are satisfied with the way things are going in the country today, a similar share to June (19%) but down from 32% in December 2019.

miércoles, 14 de octubre de 2020

Trump, Biden Supporters Divided in Views of 2020 Election Process – and Whether It Will Be Clear Who Won

 A ballot drop-off box outside a Los Angeles library on Oct. 5.


A large majority of voters say it is important for Americans to know who won the presidential election within a day or two of Election Day. But just half say they are very or somewhat confident that this will happen, including nearly identical shares who support Donald Trump and Joe Biden.

Trump and Biden supporters have deep disagreements over several other aspects of the election and voting process – including whether it will be clear which candidate won even after all the votes are counted. About three-quarters of registered voters who support Biden (76%) are confident that the country will know the winner of the presidential election after all the votes are counted, including 30% who are very confident.

A much smaller majority of Trump supporters (55%) are confident that Americans will have a clear sense of who won, with just 13% saying they are very confident the winner will be clearly known after all the votes are counted.

The new survey by Pew Research Center, conducted Sept. 30-Oct. 5 among 11,929 U.S. adults, including 10,543 registered voters, finds that Trump and Biden supporters also have very different views of the impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the safety of voting in the Nov. 3 presidential election. Among all registered voters, 79% say they are very or somewhat confident that in-person voting places will be run safely, without spreading the coronavirus. But just a third are very confident that the coronavirus will not be spread at in-person voting sites.

Majorities of both Trump (91%) and Biden supporters (70%) are at least somewhat confident that in-person voting places will be run safely, without the spread of the disease. Yet while about half of Trump supporters (53%) are very confident that COVID-19 will not be spread by in-person voting, just 17% of Biden supporters say the same.

Trump supporters are more than twice as likely than Biden supporters to say they plan to cast their ballots in the presidential election in person on Election Day (50% vs. 20%). By contrast, far more Biden than Trump supporters say they plan to vote – or already have voted – by absentee or mail-in ballot (51% Biden supporters, compared with 25% of those who back Trump). Similar shares of Trump and Biden supporters (20% and 22%, respectively), plan to vote, or have voted, in person before Election Day.

For the most part, both Trump and Biden supporters are at least somewhat confident that votes cast in person will be counted as voters intended. Yet they differ sharply over whether absentee or mail-in ballots will be counted as voters intended: 77% of Biden supporters are very or somewhat confident, compared with fewer than half as many Trump supporters (36%).

Trump supporters also are more skeptical about whether mail-in ballots will be delivered in time to be counted. Only a third of Trump supporters are very or somewhat confident that ballots sent by mail will be delivered in enough time to be counted; that compares with 67% of Biden supporters who express confidence that mail ballots will be delivered in time.

The new survey finds that while large majorities of voters think that the elections in their community will be run and administered very or somewhat well, they are less confident in the administration of elections throughout the country. And voters’ confidence in elections in the United States has declined since 2018 – with most of the change coming among voters who supported Republican candidates then and Trump today.

Currently, 90% of registered voters say they are very (44%) or somewhat confident (46%) that elections in their community will be run and administered very or somewhat well. But a smaller majority (62%) expects that elections in the U.S. will be administered well.

Voters were more positive in views of election administration shortly before the 2018 midterm elections. In October 2018, about nine-in-ten said they expected elections in their community (92%) and in the U.S. (81%) to be run and administered very or somewhat well.

In the current survey, large majorities of Biden (94%) and Trump supporters (88%) say elections will be administered well in their communities, though there are much wider disparities in views of the administration of elections across the country. While 72% of Biden supporters say the elections around the nation will be run and administered well, just half of Trump supporters say the same.
Other findings from the survey

Rise in share of Biden supporters who say it will be “easy” to vote. Among registered voters, a majority of Biden supporters (62%) now expect it will be easy to vote, compared with 38% who say it will be difficult. That represents a major shift in opinion since August, when just 40% of Biden supporters said it would be easy to vote. There has been less change among Trump supporters; 70% say it will be easy to vote today, up from 64% in August. Still, voters remain less likely to say voting will be easy than they were on the eve of the 2018 midterms.

Sharp divide between Trump, Biden supporters over importance of preventing those ineligible to vote from casting ballots. Barring people who are ineligible to vote from voting is much more important priority for Trump than Biden supporters. While majorities of both candidates’ supporters view this as very or somewhat important, 86% of Trump supporters view this as very important, compared with 49% of Biden supporters. And a far lower share of voters who support Trump (36%) than Biden supporters (86%) are very or somewhat confident that those ineligible to vote will not be allowed to cast ballots.

Majority of voters are confident election systems are secure from technological threats. Overall, 56% of voters say they are very or somewhat confident that election systems in the U.S. are secure from hacking and other technological threats. That is higher than the share of voters who said this two years ago (47%). Democratic voters, in particular, have become more confident; the share of Biden supporters who are confident election systems are secure from technological threats is 19 percentage points higher today when compared with supporters of Democratic congressional candidates in the 2018 midterms (53% now, 34% then). There has been less change among those backing GOP candidates in 2018 and Trump supporters today (60% now, 65% then).
Widespread agreement on importance of ensuring that people who are legally qualified to vote are able to cast ballots

Voters are in broad agreement about the importance of ensuring that all people who are legally qualified and want to vote are able to cast their ballots: Nearly all registered voters (99%) say this is at least somewhat important, including 92% who say it is very important. Sizable majorities of voters (84%) also say it is at least somewhat important that people who are not legally qualified to vote are prevented from voting, though fewer say this is very important (65%).

With the expectation that a far larger share of voters will cast their ballots by mail than in past elections comes the prospect that counting those ballots may take substantially longer than in past years. But about half of registered voters (52%) say it is very important that Americans know who won the election with a day or two of Election Day, and 82% say this is at least somewhat important.

Virtually all Trump and Biden supporters (99% each) say it is at least somewhat important that all voters who are qualified and want to vote are able to cast their ballots in the election, and at least nine-in-ten in both coalitions say this is very important.

By contrast, there is far less uniformity when it comes to the importance of people who are ineligible to vote being prevented from voting. While clear majorities of both coalitions say this is at least somewhat important (93% of Trump supporters, 78% of Biden voters), Trump supporters are much more likely to consider this very important: 86% say this, compared with about half (49%) of Biden backers.

Trump supporters also are substantially more likely than Biden supporters to say that knowing the winner of the election within a few days is important. More than nine-in-ten Trump supporters (94%) say it is at least somewhat important that the winner of the election be known within a day or two of the polls closing, including 69% who say this is very important. While most Biden supporters (73%) say this at least somewhat important, only 39% say it is very important.
Most voters are at least somewhat confident that polling places will be run safely without spreading the coronavirus

Wide majorities of American voters express confidence that those who are legally qualified to vote will be able to do so and that polling places will safely be run without spreading the coronavirus. But there is considerably less confidence that the winner of the election will be known within a few days of Election Day and that mail ballots will arrive in time to be counted.

More than eight-in-ten registered voters (84%) say they are at least somewhat confident that people who are legally qualified and want to vote will be able to cast a ballot, while nearly as many (79%) express confidence that in-person polling places will be run safely and without spreading the coronavirus. About two-thirds (66%) say they are at least somewhat confident that after all votes are counted, it will be clear who won the election, while 62% are at least somewhat confident that people who are not legally qualified to vote will be prevented from casting ballots.

While most voters express at least some confidence in these four aspects of the presidential election, relatively small shares are very confident of each. For example, only about four-in-ten say they are very confident that people who are legally qualified and want to vote will be able to cast a ballot in the election, while only 22% say they are very confident that once the votes are counted it will be clear who won the election.

Voters are less confident that the nation will know the outcome of the election within a few days of Nov. 3 or that mail-in ballots will be delivered in time to be counted, with about half saying they are at least somewhat confident these will happen (50% and 52%, respectively). Just 13% of voters say they are very confident mail ballots will be delivered on time, while a similarly slim share (15%) say they are very confident the winner will be known within a day or two of Election Day.

There are sizable gaps in confidence between Trump and Biden voters in these expectations for the election.

Though majorities of Trump and Biden voters say they are at least somewhat confident that people who are legally qualified and want to vote are able to cast a ballot, Trump voters are more likely than Biden voters to say this (93% vs. 77%, respectively). And while only about a third of Biden supporters (32%) are very confident that people who want to vote will be able to, half of Trump voters have a high level of confidence this will occur.

Trump supporters are also far more confident than Biden voters about the safety of in-person polling places: 91% of Trump voters are at least somewhat confident that in-person polling places will be run safely without spreading the coronavirus, including 53% who are very confident. Seven-in-ten Biden voters say they are at least somewhat confident this will happen, but just 17% are very confident.

In contrast, Biden supporters are more confident than Trump backers that once votes have been counted in the election, it will be clear which candidate won. About three-quarters (76%) of Biden supporters are at least somewhat confident that this will happen, compared with 55% of Trump supporters.

Biden supporters also are considerably more confident than Trump supporters that mail ballots will be delivered in time to be counted. About two-thirds (67%) of Biden supporters are very or somewhat confident mail ballots will be delivered in time to be counted; just a third of Trump supporters say the same.

The biggest difference between Trump and Biden supporters across the six items is on whether people who are not legally qualified to vote will be prevented from casting ballots: 84% of Biden voters say they are least somewhat confident ineligible voters will be prevented from voting, including four-in-ten who say they are very confident about this. In contrast, just 35% of Trump supporters say they are at least somewhat confident that those who are not legally qualified to vote will be prevented from casting ballots.

Notably, there are no significant differences between Trump and Biden supporters in their expectations about knowing the election result shortly after Election Day. Among both groups of voters, about half are confident that Americans will know the winner of the presidential contest within a day or two of Election Day. Just 16% of Trump supporters and 15% of Biden supporters are very confident the results will be finalized within days after Nov. 3.
Biden and Trump backers’ priorities, expectations about voter access

Trump supporters overwhelmingly say it is very important that ineligible voters are prevented from casting ballots in the presidential election, yet far fewer are confident that this will happen: 93% say it is at least somewhat important (including 86% who say this is very important), but only about a third (35%) say they are confident that ineligible voters will be prevented from voting this year.

Among Biden supporters, in contrast, more than eight-in-ten (84%) say they are at least somewhat confident that ineligible voters will be prevented from voting – modestly larger than the 78% who say this is at least somewhat important.

Conversely, although about three-quarters of Biden voters say they are at least somewhat confident that all voters who are legally qualified and want to vote will be able to cast a ballot, nearly all (99%) say it is important that they be able to do so. Among Trump supporters, more than nine-in-ten say both that they are confident that all eligible voters will be able to cast ballots (93%) and that this is important (99%).

Among Biden supporters, White voters are somewhat more likely than Black and Hispanic voters to say it is “very” important that all eligible voters be allowed to vote (96% of White Biden supporters say this, compared with 86% of Black Biden supporters and 90% of Hispanic Biden supporters) and are somewhat less likely to say they are very confident that this will be the case (25% of White Biden supporters vs. 45% of Black and 37% of Hispanic Biden backers).

Overall, the share of voters who say it is important for Americans to know who won the election within a day or two of Election Day (82%) is substantially larger than the share who say they are confident this will happen (50%). These gaps are present among both Trump supporters and Biden supporters, though they are wider among Trump supporters.

Nearly all Trump supporters (94%) say it is at least somewhat important to learn the results of the election quickly, while about three-quarters (73%) of Biden voters say the same. Only about half (48%) of Trump and Biden supporters (50%) say they are at least somewhat confident this will happen.
Fewer now say elections across the country will be run and administered well than in 2018

Voters largely think that elections in their area will be run well this year. Fully nine-in-ten registered voters (90%) say that elections in their communities will be run and administered very or somewhat well, little different than the share saying this in the weeks before the 2018 midterm election.

But a narrower majority of voters – 62% – say that elections across the country will be run and administered very or somewhat well this year; 19 percentage points lower than the share saying this before the 2018 midterms (81%).

In 2018, nearly nine-in-ten voters who supported or leaned toward a Republican candidate for the House of Representatives (87%) said that elections in the U.S. would be run and administered very or somewhat well. Today, 50% of voters who support or lean toward Donald Trump say this, and just 9% say elections in the U.S. will be administered very well.

In contrast, 72% of Biden supporters now say elections around the country will be run and administered at least somewhat well, only modestly lower than the 79% of Democratic voters in 2018 who said this.

There are only modest differences in these views across racial and ethnic groups, with about eight-in-ten or more White (92%), Black (89%) and Hispanic voters (84%) saying that elections in their community will be administered very or somewhat well this November. However, White voters are slightly less likely than either Black voters or Hispanic voters to say that elections across the country will be run and administered well. About two-thirds of Hispanic voters (66%) and a similar share of Black voters (64%) say elections in the U.S. will be administered somewhat or very well this November, with about two-in-ten in both groups saying they will be administered very well. Among White voters, 61% say elections across the country will be administered at least somewhat well, including 13% who say they will be administered very well.

Older voters are more likely than younger voters to say that the November elections will be administered well, both in their communities and in the country as a whole. More than nine-in-ten voters ages 65 and older (94%) say that the elections in their communities will be administered somewhat or very well, compared with 83% of voters ages 18 to 29. And about two-thirds of voters 65 and older (68%) say elections across the U.S. this November will be administered somewhat or very well, compared with 56% of those ages 18 to 29 and 57% of those 30 to 49.
Voters overwhelmingly confident in counting of votes cast in person, but are less confident about votes cast by mail

About nine-in-ten registered voters (91%) are at least somewhat confident that votes cast in person at polling places around the country will be counted as voters intended. This includes nearly half of voters (49%) who are very confident of this. Just 9% of registered voters say they are either not too confident (7%) or not at all confident (2%) that votes cast in person will be counted as intended.

A smaller majority of voters, 59%, say they are at least somewhat confident that votes cast by absentee or mail-in ballot will be counted as voters intended, including 20% who are very confident. About a quarter (26%) say they are not too confident that votes cast by mail will be counted as intended and 14% say they are not at all confident.

When it comes to votes cast in person, large majorities of both candidates’ supporters express confidence in a fair vote count. Nine-in-ten Biden voters say they are very confident that these votes will be counted as intended, as do 92% of Trump voters.

Most Biden supporters also express confidence that votes cast by absentee or mail-in ballot will be counted as intended: More than three-quarters (77%) say they are somewhat (47%) or very confident (30%). By comparison, 36% of Trump supporters say they are somewhat or very confident these votes will be counted as voters intended. And Trump backers are more than twice as likely to say they are not at all confident of this as they are to say they are very confident.

Among Trump voters, there is little difference between strong and moderate supporters in confidence in the in-person vote count. However, those who say they support Trump moderately or lean toward Trump are almost twice as likely to express confidence in the mail-in ballot count as those who say they support Trump strongly: 54% of moderate Trump supporters and Trump leaners say they are very or somewhat confident that absentee and mail-in votes will be counted as intended, compared with just 28% of strong Trump supporters.

There also are differences in views of how mail votes are counted between voters who support Biden strongly and those who back him less strongly. Strong Biden supporters are 14 percentage points more likely than moderate Biden supporters to say they are very or somewhat confident in how mail-in votes will be counted (83% vs. 69%).

Overall, a majority of registered voters (57%) say they are at least somewhat confident that both in-person and mail-in ballots will be counted as voters intended. One-third say they are confident in how in-person ballots will be counted but not how mail-in ballots will be counted.

Among Trump supporters, just over a third (36%) say they have confidence in how both types of ballots will be counted, compared with a majority (56%) who say they have confidence in in-person ballots but not mail-in ballots.

Among Biden voters, three-quarters say they are confident that both types of ballots will be counted as voters intended.

About eight-in-ten voters who plan to vote by absentee or mail-in ballot (or who have already done so) say they are somewhat or very confident that these ballots will be counted as voters intend. This includes nearly two-thirds of Trump voters (65%) and 86% of Biden voters who plan to vote this way.

Fewer than half of voters who plan to vote or have voted in person (45%) say they are somewhat or very confident in the counting of mail-in ballots. About seven-in-ten Biden voters (71%) and just a quarter of Trump supporters who plan to vote in person say this.

White voters, Black voters, and Hispanic voters express similar levels of confidence in the counting of mail-in ballots. However, White voters are sharply divided by candidate preference, with White Biden supporters 50 percentage points more likely than White Trump supporters to say they are somewhat or very confident that these votes will be counted as voters intended. Among Biden supporters, 84% of White voters say they are somewhat or very confident, compared with seven-in-ten Hispanic voters and six-in-ten Black voters.

Registered voters ages 65 and older, regardless of candidate preference, are more likely than others to say they are somewhat or very confident that mail-in ballots will be counted as voters intend.

Voters who live in states with the strictest requirements for voting by mail are less likely than those who live in states where absentee or mail-in ballots are more widely available to say that they are confident in how mail-in ballots will be counted. (See Appendix for details.)

Half of voters living in states where an excuse is required to vote by absentee or mail-in ballot say they are somewhat or very confident that votes cast by mail will be counted as voters intended. That rises to about six-in-ten among voters living in states where no excuse is required (59%) and among voters in states where all registered voters are sent an application to vote by mail (62%). Nearly two-thirds of voters living in states where all registered voters receive a ballot by mail (66%) say they are confident that votes cast by mail-in ballot will be counted as voters intended.

Among Biden voters, those living in states where all voters will be mailed a ballot are 9 percentage points more likely than those living in states where an excuse is required to vote by mail to say they are somewhat or very confident in the counting of ballots cast by mail. Among Trump supporters, this gap is 15 points.
Voters are less concerned over hacking and other technological threats to the election compared with 2018

A majority of registered voters (56%) say they are somewhat (47%) or very (9%) confident that election systems in the U.S. are secure from hacking and other technological threats. About three-in-ten (31%) say they are not too confident that election systems are secure, while 13% say they are not at all confident.

Majorities of both Trump voters and Biden voters say they are somewhat or very confident that election systems are secure, though Trump supporters are slightly more likely to say this than Biden supporters (60% vs. 53%). Roughly one-in-ten Trump voters and a similar share of Biden voters (8%) say they are very confident. And nearly identical shares of Trump voters (12%) and Biden voters (13%) say they are not at all confident that U.S. election systems are secure from technological threats.

The share of registered voters who say they are confident in the security of election systems has increased since just before the 2018 general election, when 47% of registered voters said they were somewhat (38%) or very (9%) confident.

Among voters who planned to vote for a Democratic candidate for the House of Representatives in 2018, about one-third (34%) said they were somewhat or very confident that election systems were secure. Nearly two-thirds of voters who planned to vote for a Republican candidate for the House (65%) said this.

Today, about two-thirds of registered voters (65%) say they expect voting in this November’s elections to be easy, while 35% say it will be difficult. The share of voters who expect voting to be easy is 14 percentage points higher than it was two months ago, when half said they expected voting to be easy (50%), while roughly as many (49%) said it would be difficult. Still, the share of voters expecting voting to be easy remains significantly lower than it was at this time in the 2018 election (65% today, 85% then).

The rise in the share of voters saying voting will be easy since August is largely attributable to shifting views among Biden voters. In August, more Biden voters said that voting would be difficult (60%) than easy (40%). Today, 62% of Biden voters say they expect voting will be easy.

A slightly larger share of Trump supporters also say they expect voting will be easy compared with August (70% today vs. 64% then).

While the shares of voters who expect voting to be easy has increased across most all demographic subgroups since August, there are still sizable gaps in perceptions of the voting process by age and race.

About two-thirds of White voters (68%) say they expect voting will be very or somewhat easy, including a third who say they expect voting will be very easy.

Black and Hispanic voters are less likely than White voters to say the voting process will be easy (55% and 60%, respectively).

Younger voters – especially those under 30 – are also less likely than their older counterparts to expect voting will be easy: 55% of voters ages 18 to 29 say voting will be easy, while over two-thirds of voters 30 and older say the same.

When it comes to meeting several legal requirements to vote – including being registered in time to vote, having the proper type of picture identification or signature match on file for mail ballots – the vast majority of voters say they are very confident that they will meet these requirements (94%). This includes 95% of Trump voters, and a similar share of Biden voters (94%). However, Black (91%) and Hispanic voters (88%) are modestly less likely than White voters (96%) to say they are very confident they will meet these requirements.

domingo, 11 de octubre de 2020

How TikTok won the mobile video wars by breaking all the rules



At the Fast Company Innovation Festival, TikTok’s global marketing head spoke about how the platform brought something entirely new to a crowded space.



In just two years, TikTok went from being a niche app where teenagers post videos of themselves lip-synching and dancing to one of the most dominant cultural forces in the country. In the first nine months of this year, the mobile app was downloaded by more than 64 million first-time U.S. users, according to Sensor Tower, double the number from the same period last year.


You don’t get to that level of saturation without breaking a few rules, and TikTok succeeded in part because it took an existing space—mobile video—and brought something entirely new to it, says Katie Puris, TikTok’s managing director and global head of business marketing.

“Simply put, it’s full-screen, sound-on video,” Puris said at the Fast Company Innovation Festival on Friday. “That hasn’t existed before for mobile, where people experience an app in sound-on and where the experience that people get—from a user piece of content to a brand piece of content—looks and feels exactly the same.”

In a virtual panel discussion as part of the festival’s closing day, Puris was joined by Chris Denson, host of the Innovation Crush podcast and the author of Crushing the Box: 10 Essential Rules for Breaking Essential Rules. Not surprisingly, Denson also had thoughts about how TikTok is breaking rules.

“For one thing, there’s no central content theme,” Denson told Fast Company deputy editor David Lidsky. “I think most platforms will say, you know, ‘We are for X.’ . . . With TikTok it’s, ‘We just want to give you a break.’ There’s something about giving people a break.”

He added that TikTok was able to improve upon the user experience offered by short-form video platforms that came before it—Vine is the most obvious comparison—but he said that one big element of TikTok’s success is probably just good timing. “Not that that’s a ‘rule’ of sorts, but I think there’s a time and a place when the cultural appetite steps up and is ready for an invention or product or service.”


WHAT HAPPENS NOW?

Ironically, the discussion about TikTok’s rule-breaking comes as “rules” (so to speak) are threatening its very existence. The video-sharing app, whose popularity soared to new heights during the pandemic as people in lockdown sought ways to keep themselves entertained, has been on a roller-coaster ride of uncertainty over its future ownership structure. Privacy advocates have long expressed concern about TikTok’s user data falling into the hands of its China-based owner, ByteDance, and earlier this year, the Trump administration threatened to ban TikTok from U.S. app stores if it didn’t sell parts of its business to an American company. Oracle and Walmart agreed to take a stake, but the deal has been tangled up in red tape.


Needless to say, there’s a lot riding on how this drama plays out—not just for users, but for marketers and brands as well, which are increasingly eager to embrace the nascent video platform as a way of reaching its vaunted base of Gen Z users. (TikTok introduced its U.S. marketing platform, TikTok for Business, less than four months ago.)

During the panel discussion, Puris had lots of advice for brands experimenting with ways to succeed on TikTok. As one recent success story, she cited Ocean Spray, which capitalized on a recent viral video featuring an Idaho man lip-synching to Fleetwood Mac’s “Dreams” while enjoying one of its products. Ocean Spray responded by giving the video’s creator a truck full of his favorite flavored juice—and earning the kind of positive headlines no amount of advertising can buy.

It’s the kind of organic interaction that Puris says TikTok was made for.

“We say to brands, ‘Don’t make ads, make TikToks,'” she added. “What we mean by that is to show up in a way that the community shows up, to come and be yourself, to take some chances and potentially take some risks.”

Voters anxiously approach an unusual election – and its potentially uncertain aftermath


Voters cast ballots early at the registration and elections office in Columbia, South Carolina, on Oct. 6, 2020.

With about a month until Election Day and early voting already underway, many Americans are approaching the presidential election with a sense of uncertainty that goes beyond their traditional concerns over whether their candidate will come out on top. These worries predate President Donald Trump’s recent comments suggesting that, because of the potential for problems with voting by mail, the election will be so flawed that he may not relinquish his office.


And this uncertainty existed before the disclosure that Trump had contracted COVID-19, as have other White House staff.

It is difficult to recall an election in which the public has had such a wide array of concerns about the election process and its outcome.

In a survey conducted in late summer, three-quarters of Americans said it is likely that Russia or other foreign governments will attempt to influence the presidential election. Earlier this year, two-thirds (67%) said it was very or somewhat likely that the coronavirus outbreak would significantly disrupt Americans’ ability to vote in November.

Interest in the election is as high as it has been in two decades, a separate summer 2020 survey found. For instance, 75% of voters say they have thought quite a lot about the election – higher than for most other elections dating back to 1992. Yet voters increasingly view the formerly routine act of casting a ballot as a something of a challenge. In August, just half of registered voters expected it would be easy to vote in the November presidential election, down 35 percentage points since before the midterm elections of 2018.

In an era of growing partisan polarization, Americans widely agree on their priorities for the conduct of fair and secure elections. In 2018, nine-in-ten (90%) said it was very important that elections are free from tampering. Sizable majorities also said it was very important that no eligible voters are denied the opportunity to vote (83%); that voters are knowledgeable about candidates and issues (78%); that there is high turnout in presidential elections (70%); and that no ineligible voters are permitted to vote (67%).

Yet Republicans and Democrats had stark differences in evaluations of how the nation was doing in achieving these goals. They even had widely divergent perceptions about whether there is, in fact, high turnout in U.S. presidential elections: 73% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents viewed voter turnout as high, compared with only about half of Democrats and Democratic leaners (52%).

Since the coronavirus outbreak began in March, Democrats have been far more likely than Republicans to express worries about voting during a pandemic and the integrity of the election itself.

In April, relatively few Americans – just 14% – said they were very confident the presidential election would be conducted fairly and accurately, though another 45% were somewhat confident.


Fewer than half of Democrats (46%) were even somewhat confident in an accurate and fair election, compared with 75% of Republicans. And Democrats were deeply concerned over whether all citizens would be able to vote: Just 43% of Democrats said they were very or somewhat confident all citizens who want to vote would be able to do so, while about twice as many Republicans (87%) were confident all citizens would be able to vote if they wanted to.

If voting during a pandemic – and the prospect of foreign governments interfering in the election – have raised concerns among the public, this election also is overshadowed by persistent uncertainty about what comes after voters have rendered their verdict on Nov. 3.

Trump has already sought to cast serious doubt on the validity of mail ballots – the grounds for his refusal to commit to a peaceful transfer of power. State courts have become a battleground for lawsuits around voting rules, and a number of media organizations are warning of the possibility that the winner of the election may not be known until days or even weeks after Election Day.

Of course, such a delay would not be unprecedented. In the 2000 election between George W. Bush and Al Gore, the results were not known for more than a month after the election, when the Supreme Court weighed in to halt a recount sought by Gore, thus handing Florida’s 25 electoral votes – and the election – to Bush.


That was a different era, one in which there was far less partisan acrimony and voters saw less importance in the outcome of the election than they do today. Twenty years ago, just half of voters said it really mattered; as of August, 83% express this view.

It is impossible to predict with certainty how the 2020 election will turn out. Similarly, there is no way to know how the public may react to the possibility of a disputed election that leads to a long period in which the results are not known or any of a number of other possible electoral outcomes.

However, some recent national surveys have found that majorities of Americans have at least resigned themselves to the possibility that they will not know the election winner on the evening of Nov. 3. And that sentiment, unlike so many others relating to politics in this polarized era, is shared equally across party lines.

lunes, 5 de octubre de 2020

Many citizens Get News on YouTube, Where News Organizations and Independent Producers Thrive Side by Side


Americans are as likely to often turn to independent channels as they are to established news organization channels; videos from independent news producers are more likely to cover subjects negatively, discuss conspiracy theories

Most Americans use YouTube, the massive, Google-owned video-sharing website where users can find and watch content on almost anything, from dancing cats to popular music to instructions on how to build a house.

YouTube also has become an important source of news for many Americans. About a quarter of all U.S. adults (26%) say they get news on YouTube. And while relatively few of these people say it is their primary news source, most say it is an important way they stay informed.

This raises the question: What kind of news are Americans getting on YouTube, and who are they getting it from? A new Pew Research Center study explores these questions in two ways: through a survey, conducted Jan. 6-20, 2020, among 12,638 U.S. adults that asked YouTube news consumers about their experiences on the website; and through an analysis of the most popular YouTube news channels and the contents of the videos published by a subset of these channels in December 2019. For the content analysis, researchers used a combination of computational methods and trained human coders to identify the most popular YouTube news channels and comb through thousands of hours of videos looking for their topic, tone and other attributes (see Chapter 2 and the Methodology for details).

Pew Research Center’s previous work on YouTube

The study finds a news landscape on YouTube in which established news organizations and independent news creators thrive side by side – and consequently, one where established news organizations no longer have full control over the news Americans watch.

Indeed, the survey finds that most YouTube news consumers say they at least sometimes turn to news organizations as well as independent channels for news on the platform, and identical shares (23% each) often turn to each type of source. (Channels associated with news organizations are either the official channel of a news outlet, like CNN or Fox News, or one that features a particular program, show or journalist from these outlets. Independent channels do not have a clear affiliation with any external entity.)

The content analysis confirms that both of these channel types play prominent roles in the YouTube media ecosystem. The 377 most popular YouTube news channels are largely a mix of established news organizations (49%) and independent channels (42%), with the rest associated with other types of organizations (9%).1

There are several key differences between the content found on independent and established news organization channels. For instance, during the period analyzed (December 2019), news organizations posted a much higher volume of videos than independent sources (33 vs. 12 for the typical channel of each type), while independent channels’ videos were typically much longer (more than 12 minutes, compared with about five minutes for videos from channels affiliated with news organizations).



The content analysis also finds that most of these independent channels are centered around an individual personality – often somebody who built their following through their YouTube channel – rather than a structured organization.

While 22% of popular YouTube news channels affiliated with a news organization use this personality-driven structure, seven-in-ten of the most popular independent news channels are oriented around a personality. And the people at the center of most of these independent channels are often “YouTubers” (i.e., people who gained a following through their YouTube presence; 57% of all independent news channels) rather than people who were public figures before gaining attention on YouTube (13%).2

These different offerings and approaches to the news could have a variety of implications for the experiences of people who get news on YouTube. On the one hand, most YouTube news consumers seem to have a positive experience. Clear majorities in this group say in the survey that the news videos they watch on YouTube help them better understand current events (66%) and expect them to be largely accurate (73%). And a similar share (68%) say the videos keep their attention and that they typically watch closely, rather than playing them in the background.

Not only that, but when YouTube news consumers were asked to describe in their own words why YouTube is a unique place to get news, the most common responses relate to the content itself – including access to news sources outside the mainstream and the plethora of different opinions and views that are available on the platform. Indeed, YouTube news viewers are about as likely to say they are primarily looking for opinions and commentary on the website (51%) as they are to say they are mostly seeking information and facts (i.e., “straight” reporting; 48%).
Few YouTube news consumers see very big problems with getting news from the site

YouTube news viewers recognize that the platform is not without problems, but few find these problems to be very big. Critics and observers have raised a number of concerns about news on YouTube, ranging from misinformation and political bias to the control YouTube has over its content creators, both in terms of their content itself and their financial relationship with the website.

The survey asked YouTube news consumers about these issues, among others. While no more than three-in-ten say any of these are “very big” problems, majorities say a few of these are at least “moderately big” problems, including misinformation, political bias, YouTube limiting advertising revenue for video creators (also known as demonetization), and censorship by YouTube.

Fewer say that harassment or a lack of civility are very big problems when it comes to news on YouTube, but still at least four-in-ten say these are moderately big problems.

Republicans and Republican-leaning independents are more likely than Democrats and independents who lean Democratic to say censorship, demonetization and political bias are very big problems. Democrats, meanwhile, are more likely than Republicans to say misinformation and harassment are very big problems.
Independent news channels more likely to focus on conspiracy theories, cover subjects negatively

The content analysis suggests that some of these problems may be particularly big concerns when it comes to videos produced by independent YouTube news channels rather than those affiliated with news organizations.

For instance, coverage of conspiracy theories was almost entirely concentrated among videos from independent channels and virtually absent from videos produced by channels affiliated with news organizations.

To determine the rate at which conspiracy theories were discussed, researchers analyzed videos to determine the extent to which they covered specific unproven claims or conspiracy theories that were prominent in news media in late 2019, particularly QAnon/deep state conspiracy theories, theories related to Jeffrey Epstein, and anti-vaccine theories.

Analysis of nearly 3,000 videos posted by the 100 most viewed YouTube news channels in December 2019 finds that 4% of all videos were primarily about the conspiracy theories studied. But when looking only at videos from independent channels, 14% were primarily about one of these conspiracy theories, and an even higher share (21%) at least mentioned one of these conspiracy theories. In contrast, just 2% of videos from news organizations mentioned at least one of the conspiracy theories studied and less than 1% were primarily about one.

Of these conspiracy theories, the ones collectively known as QAnon were the most commonly mentioned; 8% of videos from independent channels focused primarily on QAnon theories and 14% mentioned them, compared with news organization channels, which mentioned them in 2% of videos (and didn’t publish any videos that were primarily about them). Previous research has found that about half of U.S. adults (47%) say they have heard at least a little about the QAnon conspiracy theories.

In addition to being more likely to cover conspiracy theories, independent channels were more likely to produce videos with a negative stance toward their subject.

While watching the videos from the top 100 most viewed YouTube news channels in December of last year, researchers assessed whether the tone of each video was primarily positive or negative toward the person or group it addressed. Overall, videos were more likely to have a negative evaluation of the person or group the video discussed than a positive one (22% vs. 4%), although most videos (69%) were neither overwhelmingly positive nor negative (see the methodology for details on how videos were coded).

But negativity was notably more common in videos from independent channels – 37% of the videos produced by independent channels were negative, compared with 17% of videos from news organizations.

Moreover, negative videos were especially popular, drawing more views on average than other videos. Across all different types of channels, videos that were predominantly negative in tone received an average of 184,000 views, compared with 172,000 views for videos with a mixed or neutral tone and 117,000 for positive videos.
Donald Trump on YouTube: Videos about the president made up the biggest chunk of news videos and were viewed by more people

The examination of videos also highlights the important role that President Donald Trump played in news videos in December 2019: Videos that discussed topics related to his presidency or focused on him more generally received far more views than other videos.

The 2,967 videos that were examined were all posted in December 2019, during which time the U.S. House of Representatives voted to impeach Trump on charges of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. In this context, impeachment was the most common topic of videos posted by the 100 most viewed YouTube news channels during this time.

At the same time, however, the 2020 election, which at that point was largely centered around the race for the Democratic nomination, was featured much less frequently. Despite several months of Democratic debates – including one during December 2019 – just 12% of videos were about the election. This is a third of the proportion of videos that were about the impeachment.

Other common topics included a range of domestic policy areas (31% of videos), including abortion, gun control, immigration and international affairs (9%).

The president’s presence showed up in other ways as well. For instance, more videos focused on Trump than any other person or group across all videos in December 2019 – no matter the topic (while topic refers to the primary story being discussed, focus describes the person or group the video is about; e.g., a video could be about impeachment but be focused on the president or Congressional Democrats). About a quarter (24%) of all videos studied focused on Trump or his administration, with the impeachment inquiry being the most common topic of those discussions.

And this also shows up in how popular videos are: Simply put, videos that featured the president got more views than others. Videos that were primarily about Trump’s impeachment or Trump’s administration averaged 245,000 and 257,000 views, respectively, while those about other topics averaged 122,000 views. And no matter what the topic, when Trump himself was the main focus of a video, those videos received 221,000 views on average, compared with 157,000 among all other videos.

The president’s prominence in these videos also appears to shape what viewers take away from them. In an open-ended question, the survey asked what political or social issue YouTube news consumers learned the most about from watching YouTube news in the year before the survey (which was conducted in January 2020), and a third mentioned Trump or his administration – more than any other category.

Other key findings from the study include:
Amid a debate about whether YouTube is an engine for political “radicalization,” the study finds that about half of YouTube news consumers describe the overall body of news videos about politics and social issues on the website as moderate. About a third (32%) see them as liberal and a smaller portion (14%) view them as conservative. When it comes to social media more broadly, about half of Americans (48%) say the news posts they see there are mostly liberal, according to previous research.
An examination of the most popular YouTube news channels shows that the vast majority do not clearly state a political ideology on their channel page – regardless of whether the contents of their videos take an ideological slant. Only 12% of popular YouTube news channels explicitly include language about their ideology in the channel description, with slightly more identifying as right-leaning (8%) than left-leaning (4%). Independent news channels, however, are somewhat more likely than news organization channels to describe themselves in partisan terms and are more likely to say they lean right.
Media and politicians were the most common sources cited in YouTube news videos. About half of all videos analyzed cited the news media as a source of information (51%), and a slightly smaller portion of videos (42%) cited a prominent Republican or Democrat, including Trump, the 2020 Democratic presidential candidates, or members of Congress.3 News organization channels were much more likely than independent channels to cite politicians (49% of videos from news organizations vs. 25% of videos from independent channels), while independent channels were more likely to cite the news media (68% vs. 45%).
Independent channels are far more likely than news organizations to raise funds through their channels (71% vs. 14%). Overall, about four-in-ten of the most popular YouTube news channels (41%) accept donations through a variety of methods – most commonly Patreon, a site where fans can support creators financially.

jueves, 24 de septiembre de 2020

Gen Z eligible voters reflect the growing racial and ethnic diversity of U.S. electorate



A student holds an “I Voted” sticker as she leaves a polling station on the campus of the University of California, Irvine, on Election Day 2018. (Robyn Beck/AFP via Getty Images)

As the presidential election fast approaches and early voting gets underway in some states, interest is building over the impact Generation Z voters – who will make up one-in-ten eligible voters this fall – will have on the outcome.


Gen Z eligible voters, who range in age from 18 to 23, are a more racially and ethnically diverse group than older generations. While a majority (55%) are non-Hispanic White, a notable 22% are Hispanic, according to a Pew Research Center analysis based on Census Bureau data. Some 14% of Gen Z eligible voters are Black, 5% are Asian and 5% are some other race or multiracial.

The share of Gen Z voters who are Hispanic is significantly higher than the share among Millennial, Gen X, Baby Boomer or Silent Generation and older voters.


How we did this


Generation Z is the fastest growing generation in the U.S. electorate. Since 2016 roughly 4.3 million citizens turned age 18 each year, boosting the ranks of the Gen Z electorate. This profile of the electorate is based on the Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC), which is conducted in March of every year. Conducted jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the CPS is a monthly survey of approximately 60,000 households and is the source of the nation’s official statistics on unemployment. The ASEC survey in March features a larger sample size. Data on income and poverty from the ASEC survey serve as the basis for the well-known Census Bureau report on income and poverty in the United States.

The CPS is representative of the civilian non-institutionalized population.

The COVID-19 outbreak has affected data collection efforts by the U.S. government in its surveys, especially limiting in-person data collection. This resulted in a 10 percentage point decrease in the response rate for the CPS in March 2020. It is possible that some measures of the electorate and its demographic composition are affected by these changes in data collection.

The CPS microdata used in this report are the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS) provided by the University of Minnesota. IPUMS assigns uniform codes, to the extent possible, to data collected in the CPS over the years. More information about IPUMS, including variable definitions and sampling error, is available at http://cps.ipums.org/cps/documentation.shtml.

Gen Z voters are less likely than their predecessors to be foreign born: 4% were born outside the U.S., compared with 9% of Millennial voters, 15% of Gen X voters, 12% of Baby Boomer voters and 13% of Silent voters and older. This aligns with previous Center studies, which looked at a broader segment of Gen Z – not just citizens who are voting age – and found that Gen Zers are more likely than Millennials to be the children of immigrants. In 2019, 22% of Gen Zers ages 7 to 22 had at least one immigrant parent, compared with 14% of Millennials when they were a comparable age.

In raw numbers, there are more than 23 million eligible Gen Z voters this year, about 16 million more than could vote in the 2016 election – although the Gen Z voters make up significantly smaller shares of the overall electorate than other generations because many aren’t yet eligible to vote. For context, more than 63 million Millennials are eligible to vote this year.

The impact Gen Zers have on the election will depend in large part on voter turnout. Younger voters traditionally turn out to vote at lower rates than their older counterparts, as turnout tends to increase with age. Three-in-ten Gen Z eligible voters cast ballots in the 2018 midterm election – lower than the share of Millennial eligible voters who turned out (42%) and substantially below the rate for all eligible voters (53%).


How MARCA POLITICA defines the electorate


MARCA POLITICA defines the electorate as all citizens ages 18 and older living in the United States. We don’t account for those who have lost their voting rights, such as people convicted of felonies living in certain states, or those who can vote from outside the U.S., such as citizens living abroad and members of the armed forces stationed in other countries.