domingo, 9 de octubre de 2016

Who will win the presidency?

Chance of winning

Hillary Clinton


Donald Trump







Tipping points

Electoral votes

Hillary Clinton


Donald Trump


Gary Johnson


Popular vote

Hillary Clinton


Donald Trump


Gary Johnson


How the odds have changed

We'll be updating our forecasts every time new data is available, every day through Nov. 8.June 8JulyAug.Sept.Oct.Nov.0255075100%Election DayNov. 8▼<0.1%Johnson<0.1%Johnson18.4%Trump18.4%Trump81.5%Clinton81.5%Clinton

Who’s ahead in each state and by how much

Our win probabilities come from simulating the election 20,000 times, which produces a distribution of possible outcomes for each state. Here are the expected margins of victory. The closer the dot is to the center line, the tighter the race. And the wider the bar, the less certain the model is about the outcome.



80% chance outcome falls in this range
Expected margin of victory▼▲Chance oftipping election▼▲+75+50+25+25+50+75FloridaD+2.917.1%PennsylvaniaD+6.511.6%North CarolinaD+2.29.9%OhioD+1.38.5%MichiganD+7.58.1%WisconsinD+6.96.8%ColoradoD+5.86.3%MinnesotaD+7.25.2%VirginiaD+8.34.7%NevadaD+3.23.5%ArizonaR+0.32.8%New HampshireD+6.52.7%IowaD+0.21.8%GeorgiaR+3.61.6%New JerseyD+12.81.5%New MexicoD+11.01.2%OregonD+12.50.9%TexasR+6.90.7%AlaskaR+5.90.5%Maine - statewideD+9.00.5%WashingtonD+14.10.4%DelawareD+16.50.3%Maine 2nd DistrictR+1.80.3%South CarolinaR+6.80.3%IllinoisD+16.10.3%MississippiR+11.80.3%ConnecticutD+15.60.3%MissouriR+5.60.2%South DakotaR+10.40.2%Rhode IslandD+18.70.2%MontanaR+8.90.2%Maine 1st DistrictD+18.80.1%CaliforniaD+23.70.1%IndianaR+7.90.1%Nebraska - statewideR+16.40.1%Nebraska 2nd DistrictR+1.0<0.1%KansasR+9.2<0.1%LouisianaR+11.8<0.1%TennesseeR+12.6<0.1%KentuckyR+13.7<0.1%Nebraska 1st DistrictR+13.8<0.1%UtahR+14.9<0.1%North DakotaR+15.3<0.1%ArkansasR+16.5<0.1%OklahomaR+20.1<0.1%New YorkD+20.2<0.1%AlabamaR+20.8<0.1%IdahoR+20.9<0.1%West VirginiaR+22.0<0.1%MassachusettsD+22.6<0.1%VermontD+25.5<0.1%MarylandD+28.8<0.1%WyomingR+30.1<0.1%HawaiiD+33.7<0.1%Nebraska 3rd DistrictR+34.6<0.1%D.C.D+62.2<0.1%
Show all states▾

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It’s all about the 538 Electoral College votes

Here's a map of the country, with each state sized by its number of electoral votes and shaded by the leading candidate's chance of winning it.







Clinton's chances

Trump's chances

One electoral vote

The winding path to 270 electoral votes

A candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to clinch the White House. Here's where the race stands, with the states ordered by the projected margin between the candidates — Clinton’s strongest states are farthest left, Trump’s farthest right — and sized by the number of electoral votes they will award.The candidate who getsmore than 269 electoral votes —enough to cross this line — wins← Bigger Clinton marginsBigger Trump margins →DCHIMarylandVTCaliforniaMANew YorkME 1stRIDEIllinoisCTWashingtonNew JerseyOregonNMMEVirginiaMichiganMinnesotaWisconsinPennsylvaniaNHColoradoNevadaFloridaNorth CarolinaOhioIowaArizonaNE 2ndME 2ndGeorgiaMissouriAKSCTexasIndianaMTKansasSDLAMSTennesseeKentuckyNE 1stUtahNDNEAROKAlabamaIDWVWYNE 3rd


One electoral vote

How much each state matters

Two measures help capture how important a state and its voters will be in determining the next president: “Tipping-point chance” is the probability that a state will provide the decisive vote in the Electoral College. “Voter power index” is the relative likelihood that an individual voter in a state will determine the Electoral College winner.

Tipping-point chance

Florida 17.1%

Pennsylvania 11.6

North Carolina 9.9

Ohio 8.5

Michigan 8.1

Wisconsin 6.8

Colorado 6.3

Minnesota 5.2

Virginia 4.7

Nevada 3.5

Voter power index

New Hampshire 5.0

Nevada 4.3

Colorado 3.1

Wisconsin 3.0

North Carolina 2.8

Pennsylvania 2.7

Florida 2.5

Minnesota 2.3

Alaska 2.3

Michigan 2.3

Show all states▾

What to expect from the Electoral College

In each of our simulations, we forecast the states and note the number of electoral votes each candidate wins. That gives us a distribution for each candidate, where the tallest bar is the outcome that occurred most frequently.50100150200250300350400450500Clinton’s electoral votes00. chanceClinton wins →50100150200250300350400450500Trump’s electoral votes00. chanceTrump wins →

Who’s winning the popular vote

Our model produces a distribution of outcomes for the national popular vote. The curves will get narrower as the election gets closer and our forecasts become more confident.



80% chance outcome falls in this range
Crazy and not-so-crazy scenarios

Here are the chances we’ll see these election outcomes.
Electoral College deadlock no candidate gets 270 electoral votes 0.5%
Recount at least one decisive state within 0.5 ppt 5.2%
Clinton wins popular vote 86.7%
Trump wins popular vote 13.3%
Clinton wins popular vote but loses Electoral College 5.8%
Trump wins popular vote but loses Electoral College 0.6%
Johnson wins at least one electoral vote 1.1%
Clinton majority wins at least 50 percent of the vote 37.1%
Trump majority wins at least 50 percent of the vote 1.8%
Clinton landslide double-digit popular vote margin 18.8%
Trump landslide double-digit popular vote margin 0.5%
Map exactly the same as in 2012 0.3%
Clinton wins at least one state Mitt Romney won in 2012 80.6%
Trump wins at least one state President Obama won in 2012 66.7%

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