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martes, 18 de octubre de 2016
How low can Trump go in the polls?
New surveys suggest the GOP nominee is perilously close to a historic rebuke.
In matchups that include third-party candidates, Donald Trump is netting 39.6 percent of the vote compared to 46.2 percent for Hillary Clinton.
Polls conducted since the first presidential debate last month put Donald Trump on a pace to earn a smaller percentage of the vote than any major-party nominee in at least 20 years.
In matchups that include third-party candidates, Trump is winning, on average, 39.6 percent of the vote compared to 46.2 percent for Hillary Clinton in the dozen national polls using live-telephone interviewers conducted since September 26.
For much of the presidential campaign, the focus has been on Trump’s apparent ceiling: He has been unable to grow his coalition to the extent necessary to claim the lead over Clinton.
Now, though, after weeks of negative news coverage after Trump’s poor performance in the first debate, the tape of his sexually aggressive remarks leaked earlier this month and reports from a number of women claiming he sexually assaulted or harassed them, it’s also clear Trump has a floor of about 40 percent of the electorate.
That means, while he lags behind Clinton this year, Trump appears unlikely to end up with a smaller percentage of the vote than George H.W. Bush did in 1992 against Bill Clinton.