martes, 9 de agosto de 2016

Poll: Clinton leads by 13 points among likely voters


Clinton has consolidated her party’s support, winning 92 percent of Democrats surveyed. | AP Photo

The poll result’s significance lies both in his magnitude of Clinton’s lead but also the timing.

Hillary Clinton’s post-convention bounce has been amplified through the weekend, giving the Democratic presidential nominee a double-digit lead among likely voters, according to a new poll released Monday.

The Monmouth University survey shows Clinton leading the flagging GOP nominee Donald Trump, 50 percent to 37 percent, among likely voters. Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson is at 7 percent, and Green Party nominee Jill Stein is at 2 percent. Only 3 percent of likely voters are undecided.

In a poll conducted immediately before the two national party conventions last month, Clinton only had only a 2-point lead among likely voters, 45 percent to 43 percent.

Clinton has consolidated her party’s support, winning 92 percent of Democrats surveyed. But Trump captures only 79 percent of Republican respondents. Trump (32 percent) and Clinton (30 percent) are running neck-and-neck among self-identified independents.

The poll result’s significance lies both in the magnitude of Clinton’s lead — the 13-point advantage is larger than most other surveys — but also the timing: The Monmouth poll was conducted last Thursday through Sunday, more recently than the other polls showing a Clinton bump, like Sunday’s ABC News/Washington Post poll, which was conducted last Monday through Thursday.

While it is only one snapshot, the Monmouth poll suggests Clinton’s post-convention bounce not only hasn’t receded in recent days, it might actually be growing.

There are a number of other positive measures for Clinton: She hits the 50-percent threshold on the ballot test, even with Johnson and Stein included. (According to RealClearPolitics, Clinton’s previous high-water mark on the four-way ballot test was 46 percent.) And Clinton’s lead among likely voters — 13 points — is actually slightly wider than her 12-point advantage among all registered voters. In recent elections, likely voter screens have typically produced better results for Republican candidates than polls of all registered voters.

The poll shows a clear gap in candidate favorability. Only 26 percent of registered voters had a favorable opinion of Trump, compared to 61 percent who view him unfavorably. Clinton’s image rating is still net-negative, but not overwhelmingly so: 37 percent of voters view her favorably, and 49 percent have an unfavorable opinion. (Monmouth produces lower recordings for both favorable and unfavorable options than some other pollsters because interviewers offer respondents an explicit “no opinion” option on this question — 14 percent of voters said they had no opinion for each of the two major party nominees.)

The new Monmouth poll was conducted Aug. 4-7, surveying 803 registered voters — 683 of whom were classified likely voters. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for registered voters, and plus or minus 3.8 percentage points for likely voters.

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